The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Here's the New York Times on Tuesday:
OK, but how likely is it that the US credit rating or outlook will be lowered?
The average Nonrival forecast is 34%, but as you can see below there's a lot of disagreement. Nearly a third of readers see it as more likely than not.
So far, the forecasters on Good Judgment Open are more optimistic—giving just an 18% chance of a downgrade to the US outlook or credit rating. They're also giving just a 3% chance that the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended this year, more optimistic than Kalshi which gives a 9% chance.
The upshot is that even if the debt ceiling is raised this year, there's a real chance the US credit rating or outlook suffers, suggesting some possibility of financial turmoil even if a deal is eventually reached.
Justifications from readers, sorted by the % forecast they gave
In October of last year, Nonrival asked whether US venture capital funding would continue to fall. Specifically, readers forecasted the likelihood that Q4 would be higher than Q3, which was already well off the highs of 2021 and early 2022. The Nonrival reader average was 34%. Notably, you were more pessimistic than traders on Manifold, the play-money prediction market, which gave a 49% chance of Q4 going higher.
In reality, US VC funding dipped even further in Q4, according to PitchBook:
Stuff I worked on...
Grab bag...
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...