Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
How it works
- On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
- On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
- Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- Debt ceiling forecasts: Your guess of the crowd average was closer than [011523_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
- Venture capital in Q4: Your forecast was more accurate than [101622_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Debt ceiling drama, continued
OK, but how likely is it that the US credit rating or outlook will be lowered?
The average Nonrival forecast is 34%, but as you can see below there's a lot of disagreement. Nearly a third of readers see it as more likely than not.
So far, the forecasters on Good Judgment Open are more optimistic—giving just an 18% chance of a downgrade to the US outlook or credit rating. They're also giving just a 3% chance that the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended this year, more optimistic than Kalshi which gives a 9% chance.
The upshot is that even if the debt ceiling is raised this year, there's a real chance the US credit rating or outlook suffers, suggesting some possibility of financial turmoil even if a deal is eventually reached.
Justifications from readers, sorted by the % forecast they gave
How your forecast compares
- You said there was a [011523_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of a credit rating or outlook downgrade.
- You predicted that the average of readers' forecasts would be [011523_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 34%. You were closer than [011523_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
Venture funding keeps falling
In October of last year, Nonrival asked whether US venture capital funding would continue to fall. Specifically, readers forecasted the likelihood that Q4 would be higher than Q3, which was already well off the highs of 2021 and early 2022. The Nonrival reader average was 34%. Notably, you were more pessimistic than traders on Manifold, the play-money prediction market, which gave a 49% chance of Q4 going higher.
In reality, US VC funding dipped even further in Q4, according to PitchBook:
Your forecast was more accurate than [101622_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers
- The average reader forecast said there was a 34% chance of Q4 VC funding exceeding Q3.
- Q4 ended up lower, so it didn't happen, therefore lower forecasts score better.
- You said there was a [101622_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of Q4 VC exceeding Q3. Your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than [101622_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
Stuff I worked on...