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Nonrival

The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.

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Scores: 📉 Consumer sentiment went down

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...

11 days ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...

15 days ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...

18 days ago • 2 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: The last scoring email of Season 2 checks in on a Joe Manchin presidential run. I'll send a wrap up of the entirety of Season 2 soon! Scores: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president by Jan. 28? Date: This question was posed to readers on Nov. 12, 2023 Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score better)...

3 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue 3 scores this week: on Covid hospitalizations, ChatGPT, and the Fed's decision An update on your total points for Season 2 Overall, we did well on these three! The average forecast was in the 30s for the two that didn't happen and in the 70s for the one that did. There's one outstanding question for Season 2 that...

4 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: On Dec. 31, will the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, based on Arena Elo rating, be from OpenAI? Average reader forecast: 75% Your forecast: [120323 GOES HERE]% OpenAI will stay ahead Almost all of you think OpenAI will remain the leader in the chatbot space through end of this year. The...

5 months ago • 1 min read
The top two chatbots are from OpenAI, followed by three from Anthropic

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the last forecast of Season 2 and of the year! I’ll send a recap of this question on Wednesday and scores when the last few remaining questions resolve—and then in February I should have final scores for the entire season. But no new questions between now and then, and more to come soon on the next phase of Nonrival. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub....

5 months ago • 2 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president by Jan. 28? Average reader forecast: 35% Your forecast: [111223 GOES HERE]% Manchin's all talk (probably?) Most of you don't think Manchin will run: Only 27% of you said it was 50/50 or better chances that he enters the race by end of January. Why not? Because...

5 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president before Jan. 28? (Make a forecast with one click at the bottom of this email.) Joe Manchin for president? Joe Manchin likes to dither while the whole world watches. Democrats courted Manchin for months in 2022 to get the Inflation Reduction Act passed. Now...

5 months ago • 2 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Results: Will the Fed raise rates at its December meeting? Average reader forecast: 32% Your forecast: [110523 GOES HERE]% No more interest rate hikes in 2023? Just after I’d written and scheduled this past weekend’s email on inflation and the Fed, we got new jobs numbers—and they suggested the job market was...

6 months ago • 1 min read
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