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In September, Nonrival partnered with Stanford economist Nick Bloom to forecast the trajectory of work-from-home and whether it would keep declining as the pandemic eased.
We asked: How likely is it that the share of full, paid US work days done from home is 29% or higher in September? (In August it was 29.5%)
The average of readers’ forecasts was 44%, suggesting the crowd thought it was slightly more likely than not that work-from-home would decline to below 29% of full-time work days in September.
The September data is out: 29.1% of full, paid work days in the US were done from home, according to Bloom’s survey.
That means higher forecasts scored better, because the September value was in fact 29% or higher.
(You didn't make a prediction that week or else you'd see your personalized forecasting results here.)
The decade-long tech boom is over, at least for now. Venture capital funding in the US plunged in Q3, dropping 40% from Q2. Third quarter investment was about half of Q3 the year before.
Like so many other sectors of the economy, VC is being dragged down by rising interest rates, lower growth prospects, and ongoing uncertainty. But will VC funding fall even further? Or will it start to rebound? The answer will help determine the fate of a generation’s worth of tech startups.
US VC funding rose steadily from 2010 through 2020, then shot up in 2021. Funding has declined every quarter of 2022 so far. Even so, 2022 has already seen more VC funding than any year other than 2021.
The last big VC bust was in 2001. It took more than a decade for US VC funding to match its dotcom peak. But the asset class was much smaller and less mature, and tech was a much smaller share of the economy.
VC investment depends on the amount of money looking for risky, long-term investments and on the number of promising technology startups. But in the short-run, VC can depend on mood and momentum. As Eric Paley, a VC, puts it: “People have to be able to dream to invest in stuff.”
VCs are sitting on a record amount of committed capital. The case for VC rebounding is that this “dry powder” will eventually get spent. But VCs can choose to slow the pace at which they invest that money.
Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am ET Wednesday Oct. 19
Fine print: This question will be resolved based on the quarterly PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor report.
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The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...