Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.

In this issue

• Why Nonrival is ending
• How to keep forecasting

Nearly two great years of Nonrival

I won't bury the lede: I'm shutting down Nonrival after nearly two years, because I'm starting a new job as an editor on Bloomberg's new digital weekend team.

I'm very excited to start that role, but sad to wind down this project which has been one of the most satisfying things I've ever worked on — thanks to all of you!

Two years ago, I wanted to find out if explanatory writing and crowd forecasting could go together — and if they could be combined into a newsletter. I'm proud to say that Nonrival was the first ever email-based forecasting tournament.

As much fun as I've had putting this newsletter together, no crowdsourced project can work without a community of people committed to it. I really appreciate all the time every one of you put into this — from forecasting pros willing to try a new format, to friends and family willing to dive into forecasting, to skeptics convinced that always choosing 50% would eventually win out (you know who you are 😂).

It's the collective aspect of this project that makes it most interesting to me. The internet doesn't have to be just individuals posting alone; we can build new forms of media that challenge us to think harder, that guide us to deliberate, and that synthesize the wisdom of the crowd.

Thanks for being a part of this experiment.

More about forecasting

For anyone new to forecasting who wants to keep at it, I recommend two platforms: Good Judgment Open and INFER. I have a slightly longer list of platforms here.

If you're just interested in reading a bit more about forecasting, I recommend two recent pieces:

• ​'How not to predict the future', Asterisk, by Molly Hickman
• ​'Why prediction markets aren't popular', Works in Progress, by Nick Whitaker & J. Zachary Mazlish

Two last bits of housekeeping

If you work in forecasting or media (or are just curious) and want to discuss anything about this project or what I learned, please email me: walter@nonrival.pub​

I'm going to keep this email list for future projects. If you don't want to be on it anymore, please feel free to click unsubscribe by the end of Sunday.

Thanks again!