The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Recap: Vibes will keep improving
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Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issueRecap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4?
The vibes will keep improvingMost of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As long as jobs are being created and markets are looking up, readers expect consumer sentiment to trend up with it. Reader rationales
50%: The situation is not much better than it was before. But sentiment is influenced by media in preparation for 2024 election. And it can be more positive than it should be.
70%: This is a short term forecast. Like stated in the text: jobs are being created, interest rates will likely not go up and the stock market is going strong.
70%: I think Nate Silver is right: people’s personal circumstances are objectively better. It’s the contagious cultural malaise that drags down sentiment, but that will be slightly less as spring is blooming.
90%: It's spring, the trend line is already going up, and folks seem to feel great about their local economies. Unless something terrible happens, they'll continue to become more optimistic. 🐣 60% of you answered correctly: Eggs have seen the largest price drop in percentage terms. |
Nonrival
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: The last scoring email of Season 2 checks in on a Joe Manchin presidential run. I'll send a wrap up of the entirety of Season 2 soon! Scores: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president by Jan. 28? Date: This question was posed to readers on Nov. 12, 2023 Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score better)...