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Recap: Vibes will keep improving

Published 2 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.

In this issue

Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4?

  • Average reader forecast: 59%

  • Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]%

The vibes will keep improving

Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As long as jobs are being created and markets are looking up, readers expect consumer sentiment to trend up with it.

Reader rationales

50%: The situation is not much better than it was before. But sentiment is influenced by media in preparation for 2024 election. And it can be more positive than it should be.
70%: This is a short term forecast. Like stated in the text: jobs are being created, interest rates will likely not go up and the stock market is going strong.
70%: I think Nate Silver is right: people’s personal circumstances are objectively better. It’s the contagious cultural malaise that drags down sentiment, but that will be slightly less as spring is blooming.
90%: It's spring, the trend line is already going up, and folks seem to feel great about their local economies. Unless something terrible happens, they'll continue to become more optimistic.

🐣 60% of you answered correctly: Eggs have seen the largest price drop in percentage terms.

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