The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
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Last week, Nonrival asked: How likely is it that US VC funding in Q4 of 2022 will be higher than Q3?
(You didn't make a prediction this week. Otherwise you'd be seeing your forecast here.)
Readers predict VC will keep falling in Q4. The average forecast gives only a one-in-three chance that US VC funding increases next quarter.
The average reader forecast was 34%.
Nonrival readers are more pessimistic on this topic than forecasters on Manifold Markets, a play-money prediction market. Nonrival posted the same question there, and as of this writing the current forecast is a 51% chance of Q4 VC funding being higher.
Elon Musk has told investors that he plans to get rid of “nearly 75% of Twitter’s 7,500 workers,” according to a report by The Washington Post. That’s a staggering proposal that would dramatically change one of the major social media platforms in a stroke.
But what are the chances it actually happens? Cuts like that would likely damage Twitter badly, and would go far beyond what would be needed to put the company on par with its competitors.
It's worth acknowledging that this is a sensitive question: Peoples' jobs and income are at stake. But that's also part of why it's a good forecasting question. It really matters whether we think Musk would go through with it or not.
So, this week’s forecast: How likely is it that Twitter lays off 50% of its employees or more by the end of Q1 2023?
I’ll add a perspective of my own: Musk wants to encourage employees who aren’t on board with his ownership to leave of their own accord. Threatening massive layoffs is one (flawed) strategy for doing that.
The knock on Twitter has long been that it’s an under-performing company. For a bit of back-of-the-envelope context, here’s the revenue per employee at Twitter, Snap, and Meta. The latter is far more productive by that measure.
Twitter would have to cut staff by 59% while holding revenue constant to match Meta. It’d only need to cut staff by 6% to match Snap.
But it’s implausible that you can lay off half a company and magically maintain revenue. That’s just not how it works.
To get a sense of how steep 75% layoffs would be, here’s how deep cuts were in 122 instances of layoffs at public tech companies since 2020. (This chart only includes cases where the percentage of staff cut was included on the site Layoffs.fyi.)
For another comparison, a 2019 study found that total employment at publicly listed firms bought by private equity firms shrinks 13% on average over the two years following the deal, relative to employment at comparable firms. Musk's proposal would make PE firms look cuddly.
Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am ET Thursday Oct. 27
Fine print: This question will resolve Yes if Layoffs.fyi has an entry for Twitter that lists layoffs of 50% or more, or of 3,750 employees or more, or multiple entries that sum to that level.
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The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...