Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

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In this issue

• Scores: The last scoring email of Season 2 checks in on a Joe Manchin presidential run.
• I'll send a wrap up of the entirety of Season 2 soon!

Scores: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president by Jan. 28?

• Date: This question was posed to readers on Nov. 12, 2023​
• Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score better)
• Average forecast: 35%​

• Your forecast: [111223 GOES HERE]%
• Your score: [111223_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)

• Your total Season 2 points: [TOTAL_POINTS GOES HERE]

Of readers who have made at least one forecast in Season 2...

• If you have 150 points or more, you're in the top half
• If you have 545 points, you're in the top quarter
• If you have 690, you're in the top 10%
• The current high score is 870

Manchin in New Hampshire

In November, I wrote that "Joe Manchin likes to dither while the whole world watches." Some things never change. Manchin has not declared a presidential candidacy, so those of you with low forecasts score well on this one.

But Manchin is still going around New Hampshire talking about how there are "options out there." While he claims he doesn't want to be a spoiler who gets Trump elected, he hasn't given up the possibility of a third-party run.

This was yet another question where the Nonrival crowd forecast was on the correct side: at an average forecast of 35% far more people doubted a Manchin run than believed in it. We finished Season 2 on a roll!​

I'll send a Season 2 wrap up email soon, along with plans for Nonrival's future not too long after that. Thanks for forecasting.