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Recap: Manchin's all talk (probably)

Published 5 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

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In this issue

Recap: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president by Jan. 28?

  • Average reader forecast: 35%

  • Your forecast: [111223 GOES HERE]%

Manchin's all talk (probably?)

Most of you don't think Manchin will run: Only 27% of you said it was 50/50 or better chances that he enters the race by end of January. Why not? Because it would tarnish his reputation and because he'd be unlikely to win.

And yet... Manchin loves the spotlight, and the drumbeat of concerns over Biden's candidacy keeps on going. Plus one of my favorite rationales ever: What the national Christmas tree has to do with a Manchin candidacy 😂

10%: Manchin's not going to court massive backlash from his party for the chance to be accused of playing spoiler to their candidate.
30%: It seems like it would be an expensive move for very little payoff since he already has name recognition and can do what he likes with that. What would we have to gain from entering a contest the American system won't let him win (even if he was popular enough)
30%: Manchin wants it badly. He has been dreaming of running for years, trying to play both sides of the aisle, and getting plenty of attention for it. A hard reality will fall upon him when tough questions are asked and donors don't line up.
70%: This year's National Christmas Tree is from West Virginia. Manchin will undoubtedly attend its lighting, at which time he'll be gazing at the White House...

Trivia: Two-thirds of you correctly identified Manchin's boat. It's "Almost Heaven."

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