profile

Nonrival

3 Scores: Covid, OpenAI, the Fed

Published about 2 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.

In this issue

  • 3 scores this week: on Covid hospitalizations, ChatGPT, and the Fed's decision
  • An update on your total points for Season 2

Overall, we did well on these three! The average forecast was in the 30s for the two that didn't happen and in the 70s for the one that did.

There's one outstanding question for Season 2 that will be scored at the end of the month (Manchin). After that, I'll send out total scores for Season 2.

Scores: Will there be a week with 40,000 new Covid-19 hospitalizations in the US by end of 2023?

  • Your forecast: [100823 GOES HERE]%
  • Your score: [100823_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)

Covid hospitalizations in the US were rising again as the year ended, but remain significantly lower than past winters:

Scores: On Dec. 31, will the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, based on Arena Elo rating, be from OpenAI?

  • Your forecast: [120323 GOES HERE]%
  • Your score: [120323_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)

OpenAI ended 2023 still atop the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (Anthropic is still #2). No rankings yet for Inflection or Google's Bard, despite both companies claiming they've made significant progress.

Scores: Will the Fed raise rates at its December meeting?

  • Your forecast: [110523 GOES HERE]%
  • Your score: [110523_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)

Not only did the Fed hold rates steady at its December meeting, it signaled that it expected to cut rates multiple times in 2024. The question now is when that will begin.

Total points

  • Your total Season 2 points: [TOTAL_POINTS GOES HERE]

Of readers who have made at least one forecast in Season 2...

  • If you have 180 points or more, you're in the top half
  • If you have 500 points, you're in the top quarter
  • If you have 620 or more, you're in the top 10%
  • The current high score is 770

Nonrival

The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.

Read more from Nonrival

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: The last scoring email of Season 2 checks in on a Joe Manchin presidential run. I'll send a wrap up of the entirety of Season 2 soon! Scores: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president by Jan. 28? Date: This question was posed to readers on Nov. 12, 2023​ Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score...

30 days ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: On Dec. 31, will the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, based on Arena Elo rating, be from OpenAI? Average reader forecast: 75% Your forecast: [120323 GOES HERE]% OpenAI will stay ahead Almost all of you think OpenAI will remain the leader in the chatbot space through end of this year. The...

3 months ago • 1 min read
The top two chatbots are from OpenAI, followed by three from Anthropic

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the last forecast of Season 2 and of the year! I’ll send a recap of this question on Wednesday and scores when the last few remaining questions resolve—and then in February I should have final scores for the entire season. But no new questions between now and then, and more to come soon on the next phase of Nonrival. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to...

3 months ago • 2 min read
Share this post