Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

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In this issue

• 3 scores this week: on Covid hospitalizations, ChatGPT, and the Fed's decision
• An update on your total points for Season 2

Overall, we did well on these three! The average forecast was in the 30s for the two that didn't happen and in the 70s for the one that did.

There's one outstanding question for Season 2 that will be scored at the end of the month (Manchin). After that, I'll send out total scores for Season 2.

Scores: Will there be a week with 40,000 new Covid-19 hospitalizations in the US by end of 2023?

• Date: This question was posed to readers on Oct. 8, 2023​
• Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score better)
• Average forecast: 38%​

• Your forecast: [100823 GOES HERE]%
• Your score: [100823_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)

Covid hospitalizations in the US were rising again as the year ended, but remain significantly lower than past winters:

Scores: On Dec. 31, will the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, based on Arena Elo rating, be from OpenAI?

• ​Date: This question was posed to readers on Dec. 3, 2023​
• Outcome: Yes (so higher forecasts score better)
• Average forecast: 75%​

• Your forecast: [120323 GOES HERE]%
• Your score: [120323_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)

OpenAI ended 2023 still atop the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (Anthropic is still #2). No rankings yet for Inflection or Google's Bard, despite both companies claiming they've made significant progress.

Scores: Will the Fed raise rates at its December meeting?

• ​Date: This question was posed to readers on Nov. 5, 2023​
• Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score better)
• ​Average forecast: 32%​

• Your forecast: [110523 GOES HERE]%
• Your score: [110523_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)

Not only did the Fed hold rates steady at its December meeting, it signaled that it expected to cut rates multiple times in 2024. The question now is when that will begin.

Total points

• Your total Season 2 points: [TOTAL_POINTS GOES HERE]

Of readers who have made at least one forecast in Season 2...

• If you have 180 points or more, you're in the top half
• If you have 500 points, you're in the top quarter
• If you have 620 or more, you're in the top 10%
• The current high score is 770