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On Sunday, Nonrival asked whether Miami’s tech boom would last. Specifically: Would Miami stay a top 7 city for VC funding in the first half of 2023? The overall crowd forecast is a coin flip: The average was 52%; the median was 50%.
But there are more Miami bulls than there are skeptics, as the chart below shows. 16% of forecasters said there was north of an 80% chance of Miami staying in the top 7. No one went below 20%.
The case against Miami:
The case for Miami:
Last month, amid the UK’s economic turmoil, Nonrival asked:
Nonrival is waiting another week to formally resolve forecasts on whether Musk would lay off half of Twitter since the situation is still fluid, but it’s looking like it’ll resolve Yes.
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Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Why Nonrival is ending How to keep forecasting Nearly two great years of Nonrival I won't bury the lede: I'm shutting down Nonrival after nearly two years, because I'm starting a new job as an editor on Bloomberg's new digital weekend team. I'm very excited to start that role, but sad to wind down this project...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...