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Miami tech, Twitter layoffs, Bank of England

published5 months ago
2 min read

Miami tech, Twitter layoffs, Bank of England

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.

How it works

  1. On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
  2. On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
  3. Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.

In this issue

  • Miami tech forecast results
  • Your Bank of England forecasts, scored
  • An update on Elon

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.

More Miami bulls than skeptics

On Sunday, Nonrival asked whether Miami’s tech boom would last. Specifically: Would Miami stay a top 7 city for VC funding in the first half of 2023? The overall crowd forecast is a coin flip: The average was 52%; the median was 50%.

But there are more Miami bulls than there are skeptics, as the chart below shows. 16% of forecasters said there was north of an 80% chance of Miami staying in the top 7. No one went below 20%.

Readers’ reasoning

The case against Miami:

25% I think Austin will probably recover.
35% Miami won’t catch Seattle to make the top 6. Even if it’s on the rise, there are ~4 other cities that could surpass it any given quarter so I see this as less than 50/50. Plus, the crypto bust could slow things down for Miami.
35% Although the newsletter makes me bullish on Miami, it is in close competition with three other cities, so that lowers the odds.

The case for Miami:

60% It will be either Miami or Austin, but I think Austin will decline because Texas' anti-abortion turn will stop women from moving there or okaying their partners' move there, and some will move away who otherwise would have kept Austin rising. If Seattle's trend is also falling, then Miami will keep rising in the short term. A large population of first- and second-generation immigrants is a strong force for entrepreneurship.
82% Tesla and co moving out of California to Texas as well as Citadel from Chicago to Florida bodes well for the top 7 spot except for the dying fad of crypto and D.C. and Md for defense and security. It seems 50-50 but that's a cowardly bet so I'll go with cryptobros pivoting to landing on something remotely more useful than anarchoFascististic dopey simian jpegs. Miami does have some modern art scene going for it I suppose but the hurricanes, heat, and humidity are deterrents. Maybe the Thiel-MAGA crowd will grow.

How your forecast compares

  • You said there was a [110622_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of Miami staying in the top 7.

  • You predicted that the average of readers' forecasts would be [110622_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 52%. You were closer than [110622_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.

Bank of England: Your forecast was more accurate than [100222_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers

Last month, amid the UK’s economic turmoil, Nonrival asked:

​How likely is it that the Bank of England announces a rate increase of 1 percentage point or more in its Nov. 3 meeting?​

  • The average reader forecast a month ago was a 52% chance of that happening
  • The Bank of England raised rates by 0.75%, not a full 1%, so lower forecasts score better
  • You said there was a [100222_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of that happening. Your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than [100222_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.

Elon update

Nonrival is waiting another week to formally resolve forecasts on whether Musk would lay off half of Twitter since the situation is still fluid, but it’s looking like it’ll resolve Yes.

  • The Times reports 3,700 layoffs.
  • Casey Newton reports on the chaos.
  • ​Bloomberg reports some laid off staff have been asked to come back.
  • On the play-money prediction market Manifold Markets readers are debating whether this counts as half of staff laid off.
  • ​Layoffs.fyi calls it “50%” which means, if that doesn’t change, this will resolve to Yes it happened. Most Nonrival readers gave this less than a 15% chance of happening.

​Learn more about Nonrival and crowd forecasting​

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