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Last weekend, Nonrival covered the economic crisis in the UK and asked:
Since then, the government has partly reversed its course. It's said it'll scrap one of the tax cuts, and will release a plan for addressing UK debt this month rather than next.
So will the Bank of England raise rates by a full point or more? Readers see this one as a toss-up. The average of readers' forecasts was 52%, so about as likely as not.
The average reader forecast was 52%.
Interestingly, no one who thought it was likely left a comment!
It's time to see what happened and how your forecasts turned out.
Tens of thousands of American lives are at stake with the rollout of bivalent boosters, according to a study by the Commonwealth Fund. But progress has been slow. The Biden administration has purchased 171 million doses, and some 200 million Americans are eligible.
So how many Covid vaccine doses were administered in September (bivalent plus original vaccine)? 8.8 million, per Our World In Data. At that pace, well under half of eligible Americans will get the bivalent booster by end of year.
And it looks like the daily number of doses may have already peaked:
The average of reader forecasts for this question was 24%, or about a one-in-four chance of hitting 20 million doses. Since the US didn't hit 20 million doses, lower forecasts score better.
(You didn't make a prediction that week or else you'd see your personalized forecasting results here.)
Where are we on the chances of a US recession? Here are a few different forecasts:
Next week, Nonrival will be back with a new forecast for readers to make. The plan for now is to alternate between new forecast weeks and comparison and scoring weeks.
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Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Why Nonrival is ending How to keep forecasting Nearly two great years of Nonrival I won't bury the lede: I'm shutting down Nonrival after nearly two years, because I'm starting a new job as an editor on Bloomberg's new digital weekend team. I'm very excited to start that role, but sad to wind down this project...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...