Journalism & forecasting

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.

How it works

On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.

In this issue

Fill out the Future of Work survey if you haven't
I argue journalists should pay attention to forecasting

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Which workplace trends will continue in 2023?

If you haven't filled out Sunday's survey yet, please do. It's an important experiment for Nonrival, in partnership with Charter:

Make three forecasts by filling out the 2023 Future of Work survey here.

Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets

I got to contribute to Nieman Lab's year-end package on the future of journalism. My piece, perhaps unsurprisingly, argued that journalism should pay more attention to forecasting:

Reporters can use them the way financial journalists use other markets: They can be a source of news as well as one source among many explaining what’s going on. The Economist has shown what this can look like by asking seasoned forecasters at Good Judgment Inc. to make predictions for its annual “The World Ahead” edition. The issue still includes the magazine’s traditional reporting as well as forecasts from the Economist Intelligence Unit, the company’s research arm, and predictions from big names in politics and business. The inclusion of Good Judgment’s “superforecasters” — who were selected based on their accuracy forecasting on open platforms — is an addition, not a substitute for traditional journalistic sources...

Citing these platforms in stories is a good first step for journalists. The next step is for publications to ask their readers to participate. That’s what I’ve been doing with my newsletter: Each week I write about an economic or business story and ask readers to make a forecast. Over time readers see how their forecasts turn out, learn from each other, and hopefully improve their thinking. This process formalizes something most journalists already recognize: Your audience collectively knows much more than you do.

You can read the whole thing here.

Coming up...

That's it for Nonrival in 2022. It'll be back in January with results from the Future of Work survey, plus resolution on forecasts like Avatar 2 box office and Q4 VC. And I should have scores from 2022 ready to go soon, too. Happy New Year!

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