The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Two things can be true: Avatar 2 has a chance to be one of the biggest movie openings of all time and movie theaters are likely in decline.
That's the gist of this week's forecast: You collectively give Avatar 2 about a 4-in-10 chance of clearing $200 million on its opening weekend but also most of you don't think theaters are coming all the way back.
Despite the overall pessimism on theaters, readers are (a bit) more bullish on Avatar 2.
Overall, Nonrival readers are more bullish than the forecasters on Good Judgment Open, a prediction platform. There the crowd forecast is just a 24% chance of a $200M+ opening weekend.
The case for Avatar skepticism: The movie has to actually be good
The case for uncertainty: Nostalgia is powerful but unpredictable
The case for a big opening weekend: Holiday viewing, plus Avatar is still a huge deal
Stay tuned for some special end of year features from Nonrival in the next couple of weeks.
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
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