Avatar and the decline of theaters
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
How it works
- On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
- On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
- Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- Avatar forecasts, compared
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Two things can be true: Avatar 2 has a chance to be one of the biggest movie openings of all time and movie theaters are likely in decline.
That's the gist of this week's forecast: You collectively give Avatar 2 about a 4-in-10 chance of clearing $200 million on its opening weekend but also most of you don't think theaters are coming all the way back.
Despite the overall pessimism on theaters, readers are (a bit) more bullish on Avatar 2.
Overall, Nonrival readers are more bullish than the forecasters on Good Judgment Open, a prediction platform. There the crowd forecast is just a 24% chance of a $200M+ opening weekend.
The case for Avatar skepticism: The movie has to actually be good
The case for uncertainty: Nostalgia is powerful but unpredictable
The case for a big opening weekend: Holiday viewing, plus Avatar is still a huge deal
How your forecast compares
- You said there was a [120422_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of Avatar 2 grossing $200M opening weekend.
- You predicted that the average of readers' forecasts would be [120422_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 41%. You were closer than [120422_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
- Miami nightclubs mourn absence of high-rolling crypto entrepreneurs (FT)
- ChatGPT (the AI bot from OpenAI) fails a classic rationality/bias test (the "Linda Problem")
- End-of-social-media watch: "Instagram is over" (Atlantic)
Stay tuned for some special end of year features from Nonrival in the next couple of weeks.