The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Your social media forecast, scored
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about the economy.
In this issue
- Your social media forecast from November, scored
- Your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than % of readers.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Social media is not going away
In November, Nonrival asked:
Is the social media era ending?
The Atlantic had declared it dead, Musk was in charge of Twitter, tech stocks were falling, and something seemed different. So Nonrival asked you to make a prediction:
- How likely is it that the combined daily Android users of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat will be higher in Feb. 2023 than Oct. 2022? (>1.74B)
The average reader forecast was just 35%. Most people thought it was unlikely that the social platforms would keep growing.
But they did grow (barely), according to SimilarWeb. They went from a combined 1.744 billion daily users on Android in October to 1.748 in February.
Since total users was higher in February, higher forecasts score better.
Your forecast
Your score
- Your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than % of readers.
Nonrival
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...