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Your social media forecast, scored

Published about 1 year ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about the economy.

In this issue

  • Your social media forecast from November, scored
  • Your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than % of readers.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.


Social media is not going away

In November, Nonrival asked:

Is the social media era ending?

The Atlantic had declared it dead, Musk was in charge of Twitter, tech stocks were falling, and something seemed different. So Nonrival asked you to make a prediction:

  • How likely is it that the combined daily Android users of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat will be higher in Feb. 2023 than Oct. 2022? (>1.74B)

The average reader forecast was just 35%. Most people thought it was unlikely that the social platforms would keep growing.

But they did grow (barely), according to SimilarWeb. They went from a combined 1.744 billion daily users on Android in October to 1.748 in February.

Since total users was higher in February, higher forecasts score better.


Your forecast


Your score

  • Your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than % of readers.

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