Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.
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In this issue
Scores: Will the US office vacancy rate rise in Q3 to a new record level (16.5% or higher)?
- Date: This question was posed to readers on September 10.
- Outcome: Yes (so higher forecasts score better)
- Average forecast: 57%
- Your forecast: [091023 GOES HERE]%
- Your score: [091023_POINTS GOES HERE] points (out of 100)
- Your total Season 2 points: [TOTAL_POINTS GOES HERE]
Of readers who have made at least one forecast in Season 2...
- If you have 140 points or more, you're in the top half
- If you have 230 points, you're in the top quarter
- If you have 320, you're in the top 10%
- The current high score is 395
Is the 'urban doom loop' real?
The offices stayed empty, as a majority of Nonrival readers expected they would.
In Q3, the US office vacancy rate rose to a new record high, according to Collier's. 16.7% of office space is now sitting empty, up from 16.4% in Q2. Vacancies rose in both suburbs and in cities.
San Francisco remains the city with highest office vacancy rate, according to Collier's, and it is the subject of a recent New Yorker article about the state of cities after Covid. That piece lays out the "urban doom loop" thesis in a paragraph:
If office vacancies keep rising, cities will need to compete less on the ability to attract employers and more on being good places to live.