The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
The offices will likely stay empty: Most of you expect the US office vacancy rate to rise in Q3.
Before getting into the rationales for why the vacancy rate might rise or fall, I want to highlight two thought-provoking reader comments on the future of the office:
In other words, gone are the days of the boring, old "good-enough" office. The only companies that will be able to make mandatory in-office work will be the outliers that can offer unique, campus-like experiences.
But what about those run-of-the-mill companies? The comment above suggests they won't have the ability to compel workers back to the office. How will they do with work from home? Here's another comment from a different reader:
What if both these comments are right? If so, run-of-the-mill companies are facing a sort of remote-work trap. They don't have the glamorous office space to draw workers back, and they don't have the alignment and managerial acumen to manage remote work well, either. In this telling, the end of the office becomes yet another force pushing the economy toward winner-takes-all.
Here's the overall distribution of readers' forecasts:
And here are some of the rationales, with the forecast in bold:
Trivia: Which US city had the highest office vacancy rate in Q2? 83% of you correctly guessed that it was San Francisco.
See you on Sunday, with an update on Bud Light.
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...