This issue: Booster predictions compared, plus scoring last week's CPI forecasts.
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So much for peak inflation...
Last week, in the first ever Nonrival email, we asked whether August numbers would show that inflation had peaked. They didn't. The CPI rose 0.1% month over month, while the core CPI (which excludes prices for energy and food) was up 0.6%. Brookings has five key takeaways from the report. And we can now score our first-ever forecast.
We asked what the likelihood was that the CPI would rise in August, month over month. The average forecast among readers was 34%, meaning the group on average thought there was only about a one-in-three chance of a month-over-month rise. Since the CPI did rise, higher forecasts score better.
You said there was a [090422_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of that happening. That means your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than [090422_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
Will Americans get boosted?
This week, Nonrival asked whether Americans would get the new bivalent boosters. Specifically, we asked: How likely is it that the US administers more than 20 million doses of Covid vaccine in September?
You said there was a [091222_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of that happening.
What other readers said
You predicted that the average of readers' forecast would be [091222_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 24%. That means you were closer than [091222_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
Perspectives on boosters
Here are some readers' justifications for their booster forecasts...
The case that the US could reach 20 million does in September...
And the case that it's unlikely...
Don't make me tweet...
The standard playbook for growing a newsletter is:
- Spend all day on Twitter posting 🔥takes
- Get a bunch of followers
- Hope that 2% of them sign up for your newsletter
I really don't want to do this. In large part this newsletter is a reaction to how platforms like Twitter work and what they reward.
So do me a favor: Forward this email to one thoughtful friend who you think might want to try it. They can sign up at nonrival.pub