This issue: Booster predictions compared, plus scoring last week's CPI forecasts.
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So much for peak inflation...
Last week, in the first ever Nonrival email, we asked whether August numbers would show that inflation had peaked. They didn't. The CPI rose 0.1% month over month, while the core CPI (which excludes prices for energy and food) was up 0.6%. Brookings has five key takeaways from the report. And we can now score our first-ever forecast.
We asked what the likelihood was that the CPI would rise in August, month over month. The average forecast among readers was 34%, meaning the group on average thought there was only about a one-in-three chance of a month-over-month rise. Since the CPI did rise, higher forecasts score better.
(You didn't make a prediction that week or else you'd see your personalized forecasting results here.)
Will Americans get boosted?
This week, Nonrival asked whether Americans would get the new bivalent boosters. Specifically, we asked: How likely is it that the US administers more than 20 million doses of Covid vaccine in September?
(You didn't make a prediction this week. Otherwise you'd be seeing your forecast here.)
What other readers said
The average reader forecast was 24%.
Perspectives on boosters
Here are some readers' justifications for their booster forecasts...
The case that the US could reach 20 million does in September...
And the case that it's unlikely...
Don't make me tweet...
The standard playbook for growing a newsletter is:
- Spend all day on Twitter posting 🔥takes
- Get a bunch of followers
- Hope that 2% of them sign up for your newsletter
I really don't want to do this. In large part this newsletter is a reaction to how platforms like Twitter work and what they reward.
So do me a favor: Forward this email to one thoughtful friend who you think might want to try it. They can sign up at nonrival.pub