Work-from-home forecasts compared

published2 months ago
1 min read

This issue: Work-from-home forecasts from readers

Thanks for reading. Since launch, we've done three forecasts: Inflation, boosters, and remote work. Your feedback has been helpful and encouraging and I'm looking forward to making this newsletter even better. Nonrival will take this weekend off and be back in October with more.

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Will work-from-home keep declining?

This week, Nonrival partnered with economist Nick Bloom to ask whether work-from-home would decline this fall and winter. Specifically, we asked:

How likely is it that the share of full, paid US work days done from home is 29% or higher in September? (In August it was 29.5%)

You said there was a [091822_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of that happening.

What other readers said

Overall, readers think it's more a bit more likely than not that work-from-home will shrink in September from 29.5% to less than 29%. (On average, they give it a 44% chance of exceeding 29%.)

This week we tried something new, asking at the end of the survey about December values, too. Readers are even more confident it'll be below 29% of days by December, with an average forecast of just 34%.

You predicted that the average of readers' forecast would be [091822_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 44%. That means you were closer than [091822_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.

Perspectives on work-from-home

Here are some readers' justifications for their work-from-home forecasts...

The case for a plateau at or above 29% of days is simple:

People like working from home (90%)

But it might have to go down before it goes up

The number keeps declining but it'll flatten eventually for the reasons Nick explains. Workers don't want to come back, and remote works. (45%)

The renegotiation between employers and employees could take a while

Tech and software have a good chance of maintaining a functioning work from home platform. The remainder of the companies/industries will battle with the concept just as they have with the 4 day work week, an idea that has been floating around for 90+ years. The rationale for both share some of the same concepts of cost cutting, productivity and work/life balance. (10%)

Something to watch: If the economy sours, that could mean more willingness to go into the office

Recession a bit off still so employees will resist effectively (70%)

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