The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Work-from-home forecasts compared
This issue: Work-from-home forecasts from readers
Thanks for reading. Since launch, we've done three forecasts: Inflation, boosters, and remote work. Your feedback has been helpful and encouraging and I'm looking forward to making this newsletter even better. Nonrival will take this weekend off and be back in October with more.
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Will work-from-home keep declining?
This week, Nonrival partnered with economist Nick Bloom to ask whether work-from-home would decline this fall and winter. Specifically, we asked:
How likely is it that the share of full, paid US work days done from home is 29% or higher in September? (In August it was 29.5%)
(You didn't make a prediction this week. Otherwise you'd be seeing your forecast here.)
What other readers said
Overall, readers think it's more a bit more likely than not that work-from-home will shrink in September from 29.5% to less than 29%. (On average, they give it a 44% chance of exceeding 29%.)
This week we tried something new, asking at the end of the survey about December values, too. Readers are even more confident it'll be below 29% of days by December, with an average forecast of just 34%.
The average reader forecast was 44%.
Perspectives on work-from-home
Here are some readers' justifications for their work-from-home forecasts...
The case for a plateau at or above 29% of days is simple:
But it might have to go down before it goes up
The renegotiation between employers and employees could take a while
Something to watch: If the economy sours, that could mean more willingness to go into the office
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Nonrival
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
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