Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.
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In this issue
Results: Will there be a week with 40,000 new Covid-19 hospitalizations in the US by end of 2023?
- Average reader forecast: 38%
- Your forecast: [100823 GOES HERE]%
Rising Covid immunity
Most readers expect Covid to be milder this winter, as indicated by the fact that most of you don’t think we’ll see 40,000 hospitalizations in a week—as we did last year.
The case for optimism is pretty simple: rising immunity from vaccines and previous infection is enough to incrementally dampen Covid’s toll.
One reader also noted the trend this year toward warmer weather which might curb time spent indoors:
But what’s the counterargument? People are increasingly unwilling to change their behavior, and policymakers have partly moved on:
One other worrying thread in your rationales took aim at the thrust of the question: Is CDC data on Covid hospitalizations even a good measure of the prevalence of the disease?
Only 35% of you correctly answered this week's trivia: Vaccination rates differ drastically between Blue and Red states. Of the states that Biden won in 2020, which has the lowest share of residents fully vaccinated? The answer is Georgia.