Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about the economy.
How it works
- Read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
- The next week, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
- Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- Comparing your inflation forecasts
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Readers expect inflation to keep falling
Nonrival readers think there's a better-than-even chance that inflation falls beow 4.5% annually, by June.
How your forecast compares
- You said there was a [042323_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance that the Consumer Price Index rises by more than 4.5% in June.
- You predicted that the average of readers' forecasts would be [042323_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 43%. You were closer than [042323_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
What other readers said
10%: For the reasons in your post regarding supply chains and stimulus money exhausted. Despite the tight labor market, company layoffs should make people cautious with spending. Also, the higher interest rates and tighter banking lending requirements should cool demand for big ticket items. Thus, the low chance of inflation growing more than 4.5%.
30%: It seems like inflation is rapidly heading in the correct direction but I've been wrong about this particular subject in the past so giving this a roughly 1 in 3 chance of happening instead of my first instinct (1 in 10).
50%: Too close to call. Labor driven services could prove sticky; rent decreases taking a while to show up. But the trajectory is down. This is a 50/50
90%: Long term labour costs will increase as caring for boomers becomes predominant
Stuff I worked on...
- I wrote a short blurb on why Buzzfeed and similar companies didn't disrupt the New York Times, for the Rebooting newsletter
- Testing AI with Choose-Your-Own-Adventure books
- "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting"
- What's next for crypto?
- Which US regions grew the most during the pandemic?
- Was plant-based meat a fad?
- The US House passed a debt ceiling bill
- Annie Lowrey on better economic forecasting models