Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about the economy.

How it works

One week, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
The next week, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.

In this issue

Your Bud Light forecasts, compared
A 1-question survey about Nonrival

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.

Bud Light will be just fine

Last week, Nonrival asked whether Bud Light was in trouble, following an anti-trans backlash stoked by conservative influencers and politicians.

Specifically, we asked:

How likely is it that AB InBev’s total sales in North America fall by 6% or more, by volume, in Q2? (As compared to Q2 of last year.)

Your forecast

You didn't make a forecast this week.

Reader forecasts

29% (avg)
10% (median)

Readers' rationales

Boycotts don't last...

10%: If this happens it will not be due to the boycott. I'm in total agreement with the quotes about boycotts like these not actually being reflected in consumer behavior. However, their sales could dip for some other reason.

10%: Look, I live in a place where some people throw their empties out of their cars onto the side of the road. Those empties are dominated by Bud Light. They were briefly replaced by Coors Light for about 10 days, but the Bud Light cans and bottles are back.

10%: This is much bigger on social media than in the real world. Most people don't care and will go with what they always buy. It will be such a minor impact, if any.

Maybe this one will be a bigger deal?

90%: Beer is very image-led and male egos are too fragile to risk being laughed at, even by friends.

Could sales fall for other reasons?

70%: 1) Bud Light may be a fraction of N.A. sales, but N.A. sales were already sliding before the controversy. They very well might have dropped 6% without the boycotts. 2) The company seems unable to extract themselves from the culture wars, with gay bars now boycotting b/c of their response. That anecdote is probably not going to move the needle, but is still a red flag. 3) The customers they turned off don't seem to have returned, with Miller Lite and Coors Light sales increasing.

1-question survey:

Which of these best describes your feelings about Nonrival so far:

I'm most interested in seeing how my forecast compares to other readers'

I'm most interested in seeing how accurate my forecasts are, compared to what actually happens

Thanks!

Nonrival

Your Bud Light forecasts, compared