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The Biden administration has said that TikTok must either be sold or banned. China’s government opposes a forced sale, which raises the prospect that the popular video app might soon be banned in the US.
But there’s a catch: Biden very likely needs help from Congress to actually ban TikTok in a way that will hold up in court. There are multiple bills floating through Congress that would accomplish that. And the Biden administration has thrown its support behind the RESTRICT Act, a bipartisan Senate bill co-sponsored by Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.)
If there’s actually going to be a TikTok ban, it probably will require one of these laws to get passed. And that’s what this week’s forecast is about:
TikTok launched in 2017, the international version of a Chinese app called Douyin. That same year, Bytedance, the company behind the apps, purchased a US app called Musical.ly for $1 billion to ease its entry into the US market.
TikTok has exploded in the US over the last three years: two-thirds of US teenagers said they used it as of 2022.
Trump tried to ban TikTok in 2020 by executive order, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but US courts overturned it.
Proponents of a ban worry about privacy and disinformation. The fear is that the Chinese government could access sensitive data, including location history, or use the TikTok algorithm to influence US public opinion.
India banned TikTok in 2020; several other countries have banned the app from government devices. In Feb. the US required that TikTok be removed from all devices issued by the federal government.
The Biden administration has demanded that TikTok be sold to a US company or else face a ban, according to a March report. Bytedance had been negotiating with the US government about ways to “ringfence” US users’ data, using servers in Texas. The Biden administration’s demands presumably indicate that negotiation is not going well.
Warner and Thune’s Senate bill would establish a process for the US Commerce Department to review and ban communication technologies that posed a threat to national security. A separate bill called the DATA Act recently came out of committee in the House along party lines—Republicans in support, Democrats opposed—and would amend the authority that Trump tried to use. Current law limits the ability to apply sanctions related to creative expression; DATA would amend that limitation so that TikTok was no longer exempted.
Here’s what other forecasting platforms have to say about a TikTok ban:
The case for banning TikTok:
And the case against:
Do Americans support a TikTok ban?
Why Biden needs a new law:
What happens next?
Will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law before Aug. 11?
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Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am ET Tues. March 28.
Resolution criteria: The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned would be immaterial. Resolution will be decided in conjunction with the team at Good Judgment Open.
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...