The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Results: Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats?
Could Democrats and Republicans join together to vote in a new speaker? “It’s wild that [there’s] even a nonzero option at this point,” one reader wrote this week—and it is.
Jim Jordan lost a vote to become speaker today, by a whopping 17 votes. He “could have a long fight ahead,” per The Atlantic. By the time you read this, things could have changed again. (Here is a live blog from the Times.)
As of this morning’s deadline, most of you think a bipartisan vote to secure a House speaker is plausible but unlikely. The median forecast was 30%; the average was 43%.
Here are a few rationales for forecasts ranging from very unlikely to very likely:
TRIVIA
60% of you answered this week's trivia correctly. Which state's Senate is currently governed by a bipartisan coalition? It's Alaska.
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...