profile

Nonrival

Results: Speaker fight

Published 7 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.

In this issue

Results: Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats?

  • Average reader forecast: 43%

  • Your forecast: [101523 GOES HERE]%

If at first you don't succeed...

Could Democrats and Republicans join together to vote in a new speaker? “It’s wild that [there’s] even a nonzero option at this point,” one reader wrote this week—and it is.

Jim Jordan lost a vote to become speaker today, by a whopping 17 votes. He “could have a long fight ahead,” per The Atlantic. By the time you read this, things could have changed again. (Here is a live blog from the Times.)

As of this morning’s deadline, most of you think a bipartisan vote to secure a House speaker is plausible but unlikely. The median forecast was 30%; the average was 43%.

Here are a few rationales for forecasts ranging from very unlikely to very likely:

10%: Ever increasing partisanship in DC, and their districts, mean all the incentives are against bipartisanship. Whatever remaining moderate Republicans are left are highly unlikely to cut a deal with Democrats after McCarthy was removed.
30%: The Republicans usually have little incentive to make progress because their base is anti-government. Thus, the interminable rounds of voting for the last speaker. However, the Israel war could provide the impetus for compromise and also the cover for Trump's inevitable criticism.
50%: It's wild it's even a nonzero option at this point but I'm 50/50 because there's no way it will be Jim Jordan and then who are we left with? Every other candidate has the same problems as all the others the caucus rejected. The only way out may be broadening the pool of voters to include Dems by finding a consensus candidate
70%: The reason this may be plausible is timing. The funding deadline, Israel, and nearing the election season. Republicans risk losing serious face with the electorate because of their drama. More so than striking a bipartisan deal
90%: Israel’s coalition wartime cabinet will be an inspiration to bridge differences and get things done, especially as it becomes more clear that the extremist polar positions of each party are becoming increasingly untenable for leaders to hold if we intend for the US to remain a stable country.

TRIVIA

60% of you answered this week's trivia correctly. Which state's Senate is currently governed by a bipartisan coalition? It's Alaska.

Nonrival

The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.

Read more from Nonrival

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...

about 1 month ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...

about 1 month ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...

about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Share this post