Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Results: Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats?
Could Democrats and Republicans join together to vote in a new speaker? “It’s wild that [there’s] even a nonzero option at this point,” one reader wrote this week—and it is.
Jim Jordan lost a vote to become speaker today, by a whopping 17 votes. He “could have a long fight ahead,” per The Atlantic. By the time you read this, things could have changed again. (Here is a live blog from the Times.)
As of this morning’s deadline, most of you think a bipartisan vote to secure a House speaker is plausible but unlikely. The median forecast was 30%; the average was 43%.
Here are a few rationales for forecasts ranging from very unlikely to very likely:
TRIVIA
60% of you answered this week's trivia correctly. Which state's Senate is currently governed by a bipartisan coalition? It's Alaska.
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