The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Recap: On Dec. 31, will the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, based on Arena Elo rating, be from OpenAI?
Almost all of you think OpenAI will remain the leader in the chatbot space through end of this year. The average forecast was 75%; the median was 70%. Those are some of the most one-sided crowd forecasts since Nonrival started.
Why won't OpenAI slip? Well, for one thing the end of the year isn't a lot of time:
And maybe now there's less internal strife and a clearer overall direction:
Or, maybe the disruption wasn't actually that disruptive. Shocking, yes, but maybe 99% of the company has been on the same page all along:
TRIVIA 63% of you answered correctly: Bill Gates was not involved in founding OpenAI. Both Musk and Thiel were.
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...