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Recap: OpenAI will be fine

Published 3 months ago • 1 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics.

Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.

In this issue

Recap: On Dec. 31, will the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, based on Arena Elo rating, be from OpenAI?

  • Average reader forecast: 75%

  • Your forecast: [120323 GOES HERE]%

OpenAI will stay ahead

Almost all of you think OpenAI will remain the leader in the chatbot space through end of this year. The average forecast was 75%; the median was 70%. Those are some of the most one-sided crowd forecasts since Nonrival started.

Why won't OpenAI slip? Well, for one thing the end of the year isn't a lot of time:

90%: I don't expect them to hold it with this confidence for much longer, but the end of the month is a short turnaround.

And maybe now there's less internal strife and a clearer overall direction:

90%: The team had the strongest product before, but now with are even more bonded over a better-defined vision and united in purpose which should translate to a productivity boost.

Or, maybe the disruption wasn't actually that disruptive. Shocking, yes, but maybe 99% of the company has been on the same page all along:

90%: The coup plus anti-coup at AI proceeded so fast that I don't see it having a big impact. Scanning social media during this event sequence, it appeared that the rank and file at OpenAI made it clear that "where we go one [Altman], we go all." As Microsoft welcomed them all enthusiastically, there was not enough time for any OpenAI talent to sign up elsewhere. Bottom line: they are super enthusiastic at maintaining their leaderboard standings and Microsoft is ensuring they can buy as many training run cycles as they want.

TRIVIA 63% of you answered correctly: Bill Gates was not involved in founding OpenAI. Both Musk and Thiel were.

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