Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about the economy.
How it works
SundaysMonday, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
- On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
- Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- Make a forecast: Where will US inflation be by June?
Nonrival is back after a few weeks of vacation and then work travel! Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to firstname.lastname@example.org.
📉 Will inflation keep falling?
Inflation is still haunting the US economy. It’s the reason the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which in turn is why there may be a recession this year. This dynamic—inflation and the interest-rate hikes to fight it—is also why Silicon Valley Bank failed. Until inflation is under control, the US economy will continue to wobble.
Headline inflation rates have fallen since their June peak, led by eases in energy and food prices. But some other prices have proven sticky, including housing and restaurants.
This week Nonrival is asking: Will inflation keep falling? Specifically:
- Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rise by more than 4.5% in June? (Year-over-year.)
The current wave of inflation was caused by a combination of supply-side and demand-side factors: Covid-related supply-chain snarls, the invasion of Ukraine (and its effect on food and energy prices), and the money governments pumped into the economy during the pandemic.
Many of those pressures have eased. Energy prices have fallen, food prices are still rising but much more slowly, supply chains have mostly recovered, and households have spent the majority of the stimulus money they saved during the pandemic.
Two worries remain: A tight labor market and higher-than-normal inflation expectations. A hot labor market can drive a “wage-price spiral” that fuels inflation. But there’s not much evidence of that dynamic right now and lots of debate over how tight the labor market really is. Expectations for future inflation are higher than pre-pandemic but down from last summer.
For those who want to give a forecast value not listed below, there's a slightly new process: Click the link in parentheses to do so. If you click one of the percentage options you'll no longer have the chance to give a more precise value via the survey.
How likely is it that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises by more than 4.5% in June? (Year-over-year.)
(Click here to make a more precise forecast.)
The fine print
Just want to make a quick forecast? Click a link above and you're done! Your forecast will be recorded.
Or, click a link and then complete the survey. You can provide your reasoning and predict what other readers will say.
Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am ET Wednesday April 26.
Resolution criteria: The outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change for June 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in July 2023 (BLS).