The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Elon Musk owns Twitter now, and the firings have begun: CEO Parag Agrawal and several other top executives have already departed. There was also apparently a stunt where actors pretended to be laid off Twitter employees, carrying around boxes outside the office. But Musk has assured employees that he does not, in fact, want to lay off 75% of the company — as the Washington Post had reported last week.
And Nonrival readers believe him: Most of you think there’s very little chance that half or more of the staff is laid off by April.
Most readers put the chance at <15%:
But a few readers thought it was more likely than not, dragging the average forecast up to 27%:
Programming note: I’ve tried this follow-up section both as part of the Sunday email and on its own. I think it worked better as its own email so expect this to come separately going forward. Sundays will continue to be a new forecast, and the follow-up will come a few days later.
Make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom of this email.
The US midterm elections on Nov. 8 will determine the composition of Congress for the next two years. The Senate is currently split 50-50, with vice president Kamala Harris providing Democrats the tie-breaking vote. 35 Senate seats are on the ballot—if Republicans pick up even one seat, they’ll hold the majority. (Republicans are favored to win a majority in the House.)
The president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterms. “Since the end of World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterms,” per Fivethirtyeight. But “the pattern is a bit more inconsistent in the Senate. Since World War II, the president’s party has either gained seats on net or at least avoided losing ground in six out of 19 midterms.”
Polls tilted toward Democrats over the summer, but that trend is fading. The Supreme Court's abortion decision and falling gas prices have been cited as explanations for Democrats’ polling surge; concern over inflation and a cooling economy could explain Republicans’ fall resurgence.
Polls are imperfect and in 2016 and 2020 they overestimated Democrats’ chances. For more on the ins-and-outs read Nate Cohn and Nate Silver.
Senate control will likely come down to close races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Republicans have put forward several inexperienced, scandal-ridden candidates like Herschel Walker.
Nonrival collected eight different forecasts that use different methods, from betting markets to statistical models to pundits' opinions, and put them in one chart:
For more data, check out Fivethirtyeight’s “generic ballot” roundup and its Biden approval roundup.
Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am Tuesday Nov. 1
Fine print: In the case of any ambiguity here I’ll follow Good Judgment Open’s decision on resolving this question.
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The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...