The Senate is a coin flip

publishedabout 1 month ago
2 min read

Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.

How it works

  1. On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
  2. In the follow-up email mid-week, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
  3. Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.

In this issue

  • Follow-up: What readers think about the midterm elections.

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The Senate is a coin flip

How likely is it that Democrats keep control of the Senate in the US midterm elections? Nonrival readers see this one as a coin flip, with an ever-so-slight tilt toward Democrats losing control.

Crowd forecast

The majority of Nonrival forecasts put Dems' chances between 40% and 55%:

The minimum forecast was 18% and the maximum was 70%.

Here's where the Nonrival average falls in comparison to other forecasts from around the web:

Readers' reasoning

The case for Republicans taking the Senate:

18%: Boebert and [Marjorie Taylor Green] got in, a Walker is just as possible but Dr Oz will get in. Dems have a slim Senate majority and the MAGA crowd will bring a red wave to the House and will likely get the Senate too due to economy being a top issue.
33%: Historical losses with new President are tough to overcome. Poor economic outlook will make it easier for Republican candidates to win votes on “change” rhetoric
35%: I suspect that polling adjustments have still consistently undercounted republican support in a few districts.

The toss-up case:

45%: I watched enough of the Fetterman-Oz debate to think Fetterman will lose, fair or not. That's enough to throw everything in doubt.
50%: I don't really trust polls much anymore - I just don't think that pollsters have adjusted their methodology enough since their failures of the past 6 years. I think it's likely Fetterman and Warnock will win. N.B. I am often wrong about politics.

The case for Democrats:

65%: This is the first national election since January 6th. A significant number of voters will turn to Democrats because of that event.
70%: Issue salience around abortion (the inverse of suburban female voters breaking for Youngkin over schools) + lower than expected energy costs

How your forecast compares:

  • You said there was a [103022_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of Democrats keeping the Senate.

  • You predicted that the average of readers' forecast would be [103022_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 47%. You were closer than [103022_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.


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