Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
How it works
- On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
- On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
- Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- Help me improve Nonrival
- Readers think more tech layoffs are very possible
- More on Disney vs. Netflix (everyone seems to love Disney!)
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Help me improve Nonrival
I'm looking to talk to readers about their news habits, about forecasting, and about this newsletter. If you're up for a 15 minute call to help me improve Nonrival, please reply to this email! Thanks.
More tech layoffs could be coming
Personally, I put the odds of more tech layoffs pretty low. The big firms have largely done what they're going to do, and things should calm down a bit. But readers are not convinced.
Sunday's email asked: How likely is it that there will be 30,000 or more tech layoffs in either February or March? The average reader forecast was 44%. While 30,000 wouldn't come near the heights of January, it'd still be significant. Readers think the tech layoffs could keep on rolling for the next month or two.
How your forecast compares
- You said there was a [012923_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of 30K+ tech layoffs in Feb. or March.
- You predicted that the average of readers' forecasts would be [012923_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 44%. You were closer than [012923_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
What other readers said
The case that we're past the peak of tech layoffs:
Or, maybe more are on the way:
More Netflix pessimism
Over at Good Judgment Open, forecasters are tackling a version of the Disney vs. Netflix question from last week. In the newsletter, Nonrival asked how likely it was that Disney would have more streaming subscribers than Netflix at the end of Q2. Most readers thought it was likely or very likely--the average forecast gave Disney a 61% chance of staying ahead.
Good Judgment Open has a partnership with Nonrival, and we ask similar questions for their forecasters as we do in the newsletter. But their platform supports multi-choice forecasts, so we rephrased this one and added more choices about when Netflix might or might not catch Disney. Here's where that forecast stands:
When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?
So Good Judgment Open forecasters expect Disney to keep its lead all year, and collectively give just a 12% chance of Netflix catching Disney by end of Q2. That's quite a bit lower than this newsletter, where the average forecast gives Netflix a 39% chance of catching Disney by mid-year. But both groups are betting that Disney probably maintains its lead.
If you're looking to go deeper with forecasting you can make a forecast on Good Judgment here. The scoring and results are totally separate; we just collaborate on questions to ask.
- Hedge funds are not the cause of the housing crisis (Atlantic)
- Florida saw the biggest uptick in VC funding (as a %) in 2022 (Crunchbase)
- The more forecasters participating in a crowd forecast, the more accurate—but with diminishing returns (Metaculus)
- The latest tech layoffs: 2,000 at Paypal (Axios)