The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
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Personally, I put the odds of more tech layoffs pretty low. The big firms have largely done what they're going to do, and things should calm down a bit. But readers are not convinced.
Sunday's email asked: How likely is it that there will be 30,000 or more tech layoffs in either February or March? The average reader forecast was 44%. While 30,000 wouldn't come near the heights of January, it'd still be significant. Readers think the tech layoffs could keep on rolling for the next month or two.
The case that we're past the peak of tech layoffs:
Or, maybe more are on the way:
Over at Good Judgment Open, forecasters are tackling a version of the Disney vs. Netflix question from last week. In the newsletter, Nonrival asked how likely it was that Disney would have more streaming subscribers than Netflix at the end of Q2. Most readers thought it was likely or very likely--the average forecast gave Disney a 61% chance of staying ahead.
Good Judgment Open has a partnership with Nonrival, and we ask similar questions for their forecasters as we do in the newsletter. But their platform supports multi-choice forecasts, so we rephrased this one and added more choices about when Netflix might or might not catch Disney. Here's where that forecast stands:
When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?
So Good Judgment Open forecasters expect Disney to keep its lead all year, and collectively give just a 12% chance of Netflix catching Disney by end of Q2. That's quite a bit lower than this newsletter, where the average forecast gives Netflix a 39% chance of catching Disney by mid-year. But both groups are betting that Disney probably maintains its lead.
If you're looking to go deeper with forecasting you can make a forecast on Good Judgment here. The scoring and results are totally separate; we just collaborate on questions to ask.
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...