Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about tech, business, and the economy.
How it works
- On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
- On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
- Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- Forecasts compared: What readers think about Disney and Hulu
- Tech layoff forecasts, scored
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Will Disney sell Hulu by the end of the year?
- 52% chance, according to the Nonrival reader average
- 30% chance, according to Good Judgment Open
- 22% chance, on Manifold Markets
How your forecast compares
- You said there was a [030523_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of Disney selling Hulu by end of the year.
- You predicted that the average of readers' forecasts would be [030523_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 52%. You were closer than [030523_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.
What other readers said
Readers’ rationales
25%: My main reasons are that Hulu is more profitable than Disney+ and it adds more diverse streaming entertainment options to the Disney brand.
25%: A deal makes sense: Disney gets cash to cover some losses and refocuses; NBC gets a real streaming platform to bail out Peacock. So there’s a real chance. But a lot can go wrong. Maybe Iger doesn’t see it that way, or top execs within Disney don’t. Or maybe the two sides just can’t agree on price. Maybe Disney buys out Comcast to buy time, and looks to sell it next year. So overall less likely
50%: It all seems very much up in the air. Iger could sell to reduce balance sheet burden, or acquire Comcast’s stake. 🤷🏼♂️
70%: Iger seems uninterested in owning distribution channels other than Disney+
Tech layoffs keep rolling
A month ago, Nonrival asked whether tech layoffs had peaked—specifically, Would there be 30,000 or more tech layoffs in either February or March? Readers were fairly divided, with the average forecast at 44%.
But February is over, and the layoff numbers cleared 30,000—for a monthly total of 36,493 as of this writing. So higher forecasts score better since the event did in fact occur.
Some of the biggest layoffs were at Ericsson, Twilio, Yahoo, Zoom, and Dell. And more layoffs are on the way: Meta, Airbnb, and Atlassian are all reportedly planning new cuts.
Your forecast was more accurate than [012923_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers
- The average reader forecast said there was a 44% chance that there would be 30,000 tech layoffs in either Feb. or March.
- It happened—Feb. exceeded 30K—so higher forecasts score better.
- You said there was a [012923_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of 30,000 tech layoffs in Feb. or March. Your forecast was closer to the actual outcome than [012923_BRIER_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.