The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about the economy.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
AB InBev is a goliath. It is the largest brewer in the world and a case study in the way monopolization is strangling the US economy. Does a company like that really have to worry about the impact of Kid Rock’s social media on its bottom line?
Bud Light is in the middle of an anti-trans backlash and this week’s forecast is about how political polarization and social media-induced boycotts do and don’t affect companies. Will this controversy actually dent Bud Light sales?
This week’s forecast:
In early April, Bud Light sent free beer to a transgender influencer named Dylan Mulvaney. She posted a promotional video—and set off an anti-trans backlash.
Conservative influencers and politicians began calling for a boycott. The musician Kid Rock, for example, posted videos of himself shooting cases of Bud Light. Employees of AB InBev have “been confronted by angry people on the streets” per the Wall Street Journal. The Los Angeles police were dispatched for a bomb threat at one of its breweries.
Bud Light announced in late April that two of its marketing executives were taking a leave of absence. In early May it said its marketing would stick to sports and music and that it would triple its US marketing spending this summer in response.
The Wall Street Journal reported that US retail-store sales of Bud Light were down 21% from a year earlier for the week of Apr. 22. AB InBev said in its May earnings call that global sales of Bud Light had dipped 1% in the three weeks following the backlash.
AB InBev is the world’s largest brewer. As of 2019, it had a 36% share of the US beer market, with just over half of that coming from Budweiser and Bud Light combined. It does not control the Miller brands or Coors despite a 2016 acquisition of SABMiller.
How likely is it that AB InBev’s total sales in North America fall by 6% or more, by volume, in Q2? (As compared to Q2 of last year.)
Just want to make a quick forecast? Click a link above and you're done! Your forecast will be recorded.
Or, click a link and then complete the survey. You can provide your reasoning.
Deadline: Make a forecast by 9am ET Wed. May 10.
Resolution criteria: This question will resolve based on AB Inbev's Q2 financials, specifically its volume of sales in North America, compared to Q2 of 2022.
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: The last scoring email of Season 2 checks in on a Joe Manchin presidential run. I'll send a wrap up of the entirety of Season 2 soon! Scores: Will Joe Manchin register to run for president by Jan. 28? Date: This question was posed to readers on Nov. 12, 2023 Outcome: No (so lower forecasts score better)...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue 3 scores this week: on Covid hospitalizations, ChatGPT, and the Fed's decision An update on your total points for Season 2 Overall, we did well on these three! The average forecast was in the 30s for the two that didn't happen and in the 70s for the one that did. There's one outstanding question for Season 2 that...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: On Dec. 31, will the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard, based on Arena Elo rating, be from OpenAI? Average reader forecast: 75% Your forecast: [120323 GOES HERE]% OpenAI will stay ahead Almost all of you think OpenAI will remain the leader in the chatbot space through end of this year. The...