How your inflation forecast compares

published7 months ago
1 min read

Welcome to the follow up! The first email solicits forecasts, the follow-up shares what readers predicted.

Thanks again for helping test this emailyour time and feedback are appreciated! Send bugs, questions, things you liked or didn't like, things that were confusing, and anything else to:

How likely is it that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will have increased in August from July levels (month over month)?

This week, Nonrival asked whether inflation had peaked—and specifically whether August inflation numbers would rise month-over-month from their July levels.

You said there was a [090422_FINAL GOES HERE]% chance of that happening.

What other readers said

You predicted that the average of readers' forecast would be [090422_CROWD GOES HERE]%. The actual average was 34%. That means you were closer than [090422_CROWD_RANK GOES HERE]% of readers.


Here are some of the justifications readers gave for their forecasts:

Since inflation is currently uncommonly high, there is pressure for it to return to historical levels. At some point after inflation stabilizes (as it has) the pressure to return to historical levels will be the strongest force pushing against inflation. (25%)
The Fed’s rate increases are starting to slow things. Gas prices meanwhile are lower, and supply chains are less stressed than a few months back. Most likely, August inflation is high year over year but negative (slightly) month over month. (27%)
It’s too hard to predict, 50% is a good baseline (45%)
I’m most convinced by the argument that so far the data suggesting inflation has peaked is premature. I think at least from July to august, we’ll see inflation go up. Though it will be useful to have the month over month numbers prior (60%)

Coming soon

Expect more topics soon, plus another follow-up once the August CPI numbers come out to resolve this forecast.