How your inflation forecast compares

Published over 1 year ago • 1 min read

Welcome to the follow up! The first email solicits forecasts, the follow-up shares what readers predicted.

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How likely is it that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will have increased in August from July levels (month over month)?

This week, Nonrival asked whether inflation had peaked—and specifically whether August inflation numbers would rise month-over-month from their July levels.

You didn't make a prediction this week.

What other readers said

The average reader forecast was 34%.

Perspectives

Here are some of the justifications readers gave for their forecasts:

Since inflation is currently uncommonly high, there is pressure for it to return to historical levels. At some point after inflation stabilizes (as it has) the pressure to return to historical levels will be the strongest force pushing against inflation. (25%)

The Fed’s rate increases are starting to slow things. Gas prices meanwhile are lower, and supply chains are less stressed than a few months back. Most likely, August inflation is high year over year but negative (slightly) month over month. (27%)

It’s too hard to predict, 50% is a good baseline (45%)

I’m most convinced by the argument that so far the data suggesting inflation has peaked is premature. I think at least from July to august, we’ll see inflation go up. Though it will be useful to have the month over month numbers prior (60%)

Coming soon

Expect more topics soon, plus another follow-up once the August CPI numbers come out to resolve this forecast.

Nonrival

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