The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
📺 Don't bet against Disney
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
How it works
- On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom.
- On
Wednesdays(Thursday this week) see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares. - Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- Disney vs. Netflix forecasts compared
- More debt ceiling forecasts
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
​Disney expected to maintain its lead in streaming​
How your forecast compares
- You didn't make a prediction by the Tuesday 9am deadline. Otherwise you'd be seeing your forecast here.
- The average reader forecast was 61%.
What other readers said
Nonrival readers largely expect Disney to keep its lead in streaming through the first half of 2023. The average reader forecast gives a 61% chance that Disney has more streaming subscribers than Netflix at the end of Q2, with most readers leaving Netflix about a one-in-three shot of pulling ahead:
Reader rationales
The case against Disney:
The case for Disney:
The content that could make the difference:
Or, maybe both companies are in trouble…
More on the debt ceiling
Over at Good Judgment Open, forecasters are tackling two debt ceiling questions:
Will the US breach the debt ceiling in 2023? Right now they give an 8% chance that the debt ceiling is not raised in 2023, which would likely trigger a default.
Will a credit agency downgrade its US outlook or credit rating? Right now Good Judgment Open forecasters give it a 47% chance, even higher than the 34% average of Nonrival readers.
While an outright default remains unlikely, there's a very real chance of self-inflicted economic chaos in the US later this year.
Extras...
- ​FT quiz lets you compare your predictions to those of superforecasters​
- ​Maybe there won't be a recession after all? Even in Europe? (FT)​
- ​Avatar 2 has now made $2 billion. Only six movies have ever done that, and James Cameron has made three of them (Morning Brew)​
- ​How chatGPT will destabilize white-collar work (The Atlantic)​
Nonrival
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...