Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
How it works
- On Sundays, read the newsletter and make a forecast by clicking a link at the bottom. (No forecast this week.)
- On Wednesdays, see what other readers predicted and how your forecast compares.
- Over time, you’ll get scores based on how accurate your forecasts are.
In this issue
- 36 predictions from around the internet
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Happy New Year! Thanks to all of you who've recently signed up.
Usually, Nonrival asks readers to make concrete, specific, probabilistic predictions so that we can keep score and over time improve our accuracy.
This week is different. Lots and lots of newspapers and magazines and pundits published 2023 predictions, and I've collected 36 of them from around the internet on the topics that Nonrival covers. Most of these predictions are not precise and don’t come with probabilities attached (though a few do). But they’re still interesting, and you can expect this newsletter to cover many of these topics in the upcoming year.
The full list is here, organized by topic. But below I've included six that particularly interested me.
The usual format will return next week.
A decade-long spending boom on original television shows is expected to slow to a crawl this year as lossmaking streaming platforms moderate rapidly expanding budgets and traditional channels cut back on commissions… Overall spending growth on original content is expected to fall from 6 per cent last year to just 2 per cent in 2023, according to research group Ampere Analysis. Excluding production shutdowns during the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of expansion is the lowest in more than a decade where total worldwide spending jumped from $128bn to $243bn.
One of my predictions is that we will see some sort of a tie up between Spotify and Netflix… The reason why I think that is… Spotify is really inexpensive at this point in time… If you think about the Netflix side, where advertising used to be not even the beginning of a conversation — now they’re building this advertising business. You have two companies whose business models become more similar over time. Both companies that could use the marketing advantages, in particular first party data that arise from a tie-up or an acquisition. So everything says these two somehow have to find together, maybe it’s an acquisition and maybe it’s a little less than that.
Kevin Roose: My medium-confidence prediction is that 2023 is the year that TikTok gets banned in the United States… It’s a little bit of a cheat, because I think just this week, we’ve seen an escalation of the TikTok battle. Marco Rubio and a bipartisan group of House legislators proposed a bill this week that would effectively ban TikTok in the United States… I don’t know for sure how this will end. I don’t have a ton of confidence whether it’s going to end with just an outright ban or whether it’ll be some sort of forced divestment. One interesting possibility is that a US company could bid for TikTok, the way that it sort of happened during the Trump administration with Oracle and Microsoft.
Will the debt limit have as negative an impact on financial markets in 2023 as it did in 2011? Yes. The political and fiscal conditions next year will be similar to the last two extremely disruptive debt limit
increases, in 1995 and 2011… Prior disruptive debt limit standoffs led to increased market volatility and a sell-off in Treasury securities maturing around the debt limit deadline, and we would expect this to occur next year.
Some think Tesla still has plenty of room to fall next year, arguing that the fundamentals of the business don’t make sense. “Tesla is currently valued at more than the next three largest automakers combined, despite selling just 5% of the cars that those automakers sold in 2021,” noted Gordon Johnson
, an investor who has been shorting Tesla for four years…. Perhaps the ship will right itself, in kinder economic waters. (Tesla bulls are counting on a sales surge when a federal tax credit for American-made EVs arrives and Tesla launches its long-promised Cybertruck.) Equally, though, we may find that 2022 was not just Tesla’s year from hell but the beginning of a deep correction.
My prediction is that at the end of 2023, we will decide that the market for office space in big cities is just fine — there is no problem… The story is affluent households leave the city, as a result, there’s less tax revenue, workers don’t have to go back to offices, and there’s fewer restaurants and that means less tax revenue… I think these predictions are totally wrong… All these doom predictions in the end fail to see just how many companies clamor to be in the big cities and just feel totally priced out.
Read the entire list of 36 predictions for 2023 here. One favorite that didn't make this email: Why Twitter will become the "Craigslist of communication platforms."
Got your own prediction for 2023? Email me: email@example.com