The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions.
Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub.
Happy New Year! Thanks to all of you who've recently signed up.
Usually, Nonrival asks readers to make concrete, specific, probabilistic predictions so that we can keep score and over time improve our accuracy.
This week is different. Lots and lots of newspapers and magazines and pundits published 2023 predictions, and I've collected 36 of them from around the internet on the topics that Nonrival covers. Most of these predictions are not precise and don’t come with probabilities attached (though a few do). But they’re still interesting, and you can expect this newsletter to cover many of these topics in the upcoming year.
The full list is here, organized by topic. But below I've included six that particularly interested me.
The usual format will return next week.
Read the entire list of 36 predictions for 2023 here. One favorite that didn't make this email: Why Twitter will become the "Craigslist of communication platforms."
Got your own prediction for 2023? Email me: newsletter@nonrival.pub
The newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Read the newsletter. Make a prediction with one click. Keep score.
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. This is the first scoring email of Season 3 so everyone's total points have been reset, and now are based on just last week's question. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Scores: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Date: This question was posed to readers on Sunday, April 7. Outcome:...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Recap: Will the preliminary April Index of Consumer Sentiment be higher than the final March index of 79.4? Average reader forecast: 59% Your forecast: [040724 GOES HERE]% The vibes will keep improving Most of you think that the April data on US consumer sentiment will improve over March's three-year high. As...
Welcome to Nonrival, the newsletter where readers make predictions about business, tech, and politics. How it works: Read the newsletter, then click a link at the bottom to make a prediction. You'll get scores based on how accurate your prediction is, compared to what actually happens. New cadence: I'll be sending one new forecast question a month, usually the first Sunday. Thanks for forecasting. Send feedback to newsletter@nonrival.pub. In this issue Forecast: Will US consumer sentiment...