This is a good tweet: The value of deferring to experts depends on the alternative. If the alternative is deferring to a market or the consensus of smart generalists with good incentives or to a carefully calibrated statistical model, then deference to experts might not look so good–or at least is likely incomplete. But a …
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Paul Romer on theory
In a great post defending economist Lisa Cook’s appointment to the Fed Board of Governors, Nobel-winner and famed theorist Paul Romer gets into the role of theory vs. empirics in social science: There is a role for the type of theory that John [Cochrane, another theorist to whom he is responding…] and I do. Theorists …
William James on certainty
From The Will to Believe in 1896: Objective evidence and certitude are doubtless very fine ideals to play with, but where on this moonlit and dream-visited planet are they found? I am, therefore, myself a complete empiricist so far as my theory of human knowledge goes. I live, to be sure, by the practical faith …
Models of war
For the past few weeks, The Ezra Klein Show has been doing episodes about Russia and Ukraine from a variety of perspectives. In the most recent one, Ezra described his approach: I want to begin today by taking a moment and getting at the theory of how we’re covering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the …
David Leonhardt on logic
On the Josh Barro Very Serious podcast, all about making use of expert knowledge, here’s David Leonhardt of the New York Times: Don’t go to the nihilist place of ‘Well, there’s no such thing as a fact’, right? And ‘We can all pick our experts on climate change.’ And ‘Maybe it’s happening or maybe it’s …
Integrative thinking
On the Ezra Klein Show last year, Phil Tetlock (being interviewed by Julia Galef) described how good forecasters integrate multiple perspectives into their own: JULIA GALEF: So we’ve kind of touched on a few things that made the superforecasters super, but if you had to kind of pick one or two things that really made …
Forecasting
Let’s get one thing straight: I am not a “superforecaster.” Over the past decade, I’ve written about forecasting research and forecasting platforms. And I’ve participated in them as well. In this post I’ll share some of my results to date. Though I’m nowhere near superforecaster level (the top 2% of participants) I’m pleased to have …
Sociology, history, and epistemology
More than 50 years ago, Quine suggested that epistemology must be “naturalized.” Here is Kwame Anthony Appiah explaining this idea in his book Thinking It Through: To claim that a belief is justified is not just to say when it will be believed but also to say when it ought to be believed. And we …
A short definition of power
From Power for All, by Julie Battilana and Tiziana Casciaro: There are two common threads across these definitions [of power across the social sciences]. The first is that the authors view power as the ability of a person or a group of people to produce an effect on others–that is, to influence their behaviors. This …
Governance, growth, and equity
When I studied environmental issues, I was taught three lenses through which to understand them: The neo-Malthusians emphasized resource scarcity, natural limits, and scientific management. Most conservationists and environmental scientists fit this perspective. The Cornucopians emphasized markets, technology, and humanity’s ability to invent its way out of shortages. Their ranks include lots of economists and …
Nonrival 