Prediction markets or crowdsourcing?

Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking” Psychologists typically measure beliefs and preferences using self-reports, whereas economists are much more likely to infer them from behavior. Prediction markets appear to be a victory for the economic approach, having yielded more accurate probability estimates than opinion polls or experts for […]

Skills gap, again

An excellent piece arguing against the “skills gap” hypothesis. The conclusion: There is no denying the importance of education and training to long-term outcomes for workers. But that does not mean the solution to stagnant or inadequate wage increases lies in addressing a skills gap. To address the wage problem, Congress and regulators need to ensure […]

Center-left neoliberalism and the Obama synthesis

Economist, blogger, and former Clinton-era Treasury staffer Brad DeLong made waves with a Twitter thread and subsequent interview with Vox in which he says center-left neoliberals like himself should “pass the baton” to more left-leaning Democrats. His argument is largely political; more on that later. But what about the policies? DeLong calls himself a “Rubin […]

Model: Where you stand depends on where you sit

This post is part of a series where I quote and link to short descriptions of different social-science models and perspectives. The idea is to collect important models in easily accessible formats to help people aspiring to take a “many-model” approach to reasoning. Bureaucratic politics / Where you stand depends on where you sit (Political […]

Inequality and public policy

From ProMarket: Indeed, the analysis shows that the share of public expenditures in GDP has a negative, significant, and large effect on inequality. For a given level of inequality of market income, a rise of public expenditures by an additional percent of GDP reduces the Gini coefficient of disposable income by 0.35 percentage points. Since […]

Journalism, academia, and the worst of both worlds

I wrote last week that “Under the right conditions, it’s reasonable to think that the best analytical journalists will outperform at least the average academic.” Here’s a very different view, from Corey Robin at New York Magazine: When academic knowledge is on tap for the media, the result is not a fusion of the best […]