Notes on the “skills gap”, SBTC, and the college wage premium

The idea of a “skills gap” is both confusing and overblown. The worst version of it was in the early post-recession years, when some people managed to convince themselves high unemployment was related to a “skills gap.” With unemployment now at ~4% they must really think Americans’ skills have improved! There are still other incorrect “skills gap” […]

Paper on experts, non-experts, and forecasting accuracy

This paper is super cool. I have not read it in full yet — just came across it: When it comes to forecasting future research results, who knows what? We have attempted to provide systematic evidence within one particular setting, taking advantage of forecasts by a large sample of experts and of non-experts regarding 15 […]

Quantifying and oversimplifying are two different things

Consider this bit from a recent New Yorker piece on whether economists and humanists can get along: “Economists tend to be hedgehogs, forever on the search for a single, unifying explanation of complex phenomena. They love to look at a huge, complicated mass of human behavior and reduce it to an equation.” Those two sentences […]